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The reason believed Doug could go to the past and change things is because he saw (again) the message on Claire's refrigerator, which we should know from the beginning of the movie, he sent to himself. Here's where it starts to fall apart. When he arranged the letters on the fridge, Claire was alive, and Doug knew she could be saved, but when he received the message, she hadn't been saved from Carroll. When we see him arrange the letters, Claire is already saved, and future Doug will never get the message because her house will never be part of the criminal investigation.
I feel like I'm about to go into some circular Joseph Heller logic here. If Doug stops the explosion from happening, then Doug never goes back in time to stop the explosion from happening. The explosion has to happen in order for the chain of events that leads to Doug going back in time to occur. Only then can he stop the explosion. But if he stops it, he never even knows that it's possible to go back in time, and the explosion will still happen. This entire movie is one big paradox.
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